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The trader spoke about the medium -term perspective of the Bitcoin movement
Forecasts of financial markets are the private opinion of their authors. The current analysis is not a guide to trade. FORKLOG is not responsible for the results of the work that may arise when using trade recommendations from the presented reviews.
A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project Vadim Shovkun talks about the current situation on the market.
Bitcoin in the side of the side for three months and it is possible to make an average rating of the most likely scenario of price movement. Since the correlation of the first cryptocurrency with the stock index S&P 500 is almost 1: 1, the greatest attention should be paid to the latter.
The horizontal volume profile (Blue histogram) clearly shows that the entire spent volume is located in the upper part of the schedule, almost at the peak itself. That is, it was “upstairs” that an aggressive unloading of the positions recruited during the March Dampa of 2020 took place.
This suggests that large players very actively closed the Longs and opened shorts in the area of $ 4320- $ 4500.
The rebound in June 2022 occurred without volume (blue zone). There were no aggression of buyers as opposed to the proportal volumes at the top. That is, the diarrhea-settings in the field of $ 4320- $ 4500 are still open.
Growth peak in early August can be characterized as a retest of the POC area . The price could not break through the key area, which can be characterized as the seller’s defense of his held positions.
The next interesting zone is in the field of $ 3368. This is the second largest accumulation of volume formed after the covid dump. According to the classical law-the market goes from volumes-it is worth waiting for at least some kind of reaction.
Analyzing the daily timeframe, at the moment there is no reason to wait for a turn and a quick update of maximums or at least leaving the lateral accumulation. Large players gained a very large number of shorts in the field of $ 4320- $ 4500 and defended their positions in August.
After the formation of a certain proportion in ~ $ 3368, it is logical to wait for further fall in the future of the next weeks and months.
On a three -day schedule, a descending wedge is clearly formed. After a three -month -old Flat, there was an attempt to withdraw from the wedge, which ended with a false breakdown. The wedges are rarely worked out through the FLET, as a rule, pulsed movements precede exits from this figure.
Having analyzed the rebound after the dump in June, we can conclude that the main trampled volume went through the top (according to the volume profile). A major player is still trying to keep the first cryptocurrency from growth attempts.
Many factors affect the first cryptocurrency. A large threat to the market is created by the “inflated” capitalization of several stablecoins. But there are enough facts collected in the technical analysis of the schedules to state that the medium -term decrease on bitcoin is not over yet.
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